Ten
In order for us to underwrite immature company risk, the young enterprise should target an order of magnitude improvement. That math can be done infinite ways. A sure thing that's a 10x improvement is clear, but nothing is without risk. 100x better, but only 10% likely could work. A 40% probability that combines three separate 3x value wedges does too. It's not about being merely 10x better, but maintaining an order of magnitude advantage on a risk adjusted basis. That math may require 1,000x in certain high risk bets - still, it works for some . Our portfolio has to work that way too. We either find low risk deals in the wild, reduce risk through our own contributions , or merely convene rather than venture much capital at all. In all cases, we are price sensitive. Time value of money within an urgent problem gives us no choice. The goal is 100x within two years, implying escape velocity (10x) within one. We may be wil...